Triple Whammy for USD/CAD Tomorrow

Triple Whammy for USD/CAD Tomorrow

Thursday might be a particularly volatile day for the USD/CAD. Tomorrow, Canada releases the utilization Change for March, which is predicted to be -350,000 vs +30,300 in February. like the US Nonfarm payrolls last week, Canada is expecting an outsized drop by employment thanks to the coronavirus. Recall within the US last week, that while -100,000 jobs were expected, the particular number was -701,000. We could see an identical miss in Canada’s data. However, like the US, the worst of it'll presumably be seen in April’s data as against March’s data. 

In addition, an equivalent time Canada’s employment data is due, the US are going to be releasing Initial Claims for the week ending April 4th. The expectation is merely for five ,250,000 new jobless claims vs 6,648,000 the prior week. That followed the three ,283,000 from the week ending March 21st. Hopefully the amount are going to be near the estimate, or at the very least, under last weeks! These 2 events could add significant volatility to the USD/CAD.

If that weren’t enough, OPEC+ is planning a virtual meeting tomorrow to debate boring cuts. as long as Canada is an oil exporting led economy, decisions made will likely affect the worth of the Canadian dollar . Earlier today, the Algerian minister suggested that there'll be a huge reduction in production, which could reach 10 million barrels per day. As a result, WTI Crude is up 7.5% today while USD/CAD sold off 50 pips after the announcement.

USD/CAD is currently during a large symmetrical triangle dating back to March 12th. Price has recently pulled back to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the low on December 31st, 2019 to the highs on March 19th, near 1.4010. The pair is consolidating at that level which is additionally near the apex of the symmetrical triangle.

On a 240-minute timeframe, USD/CAD is holding slightly below horizontal resistance near 1.4075. Trendline resistance on the daily is above there near 1.4200, and horizontal resistance once more near 1.4375. Support is at the five hundred retracement level of the previously mentioned timeframe near 1.3809, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3604, and eventually the gap-fill from the weekend reopen on March 9th near 1.3436.

Three big events, three big chances for volatility in USD/CAD tomorrow. However, get on the lookout for comments overnight before the OPEC meeting, which could depart some fireworks!